Expect 5% sequential top-line growth & a 38% margin

Limited estimate changes on a solid outlook

Share up 31% YTD and trading at 11x ‘22e EV/EBITA

Q3 report due 9 Nov – solid growth expected to persist
We forecast Q3e normalised sales and adj. EBITDA of EUR 23.3m and 8.9m, respectively, corresponding to sales growth of 38% y-o-y (24% organically) and a normalised adj. EBITDA margin of 38.4%. Sequentially, we estimate platform sales to grow 7% following slightly better seasonality and underlying growth on the continued addition of new signings. In media, we expect 4% q-o-q growth, a steady pace of expansion due to the large share of rev-share contracts, which naturally push back growth. We continue to see robust y-o-y growth, and highlight the growth synergies from the acquisition of Sportnco as a key driver, but one should not overlook the solid growth pace of GiG media. At the same time, normalised adj. EBITDA keeps improving sequentially; this is naturally driven by scale, but we also are looking to see ~EUR 8m in annual savings from the initiative to reduce GiG’s platform costs mainly from H2’22 onwards, which could further support margins.

FY’22 guidance looks reasonable – EBITDA in top of range
We make limited changes to our ‘22e-‘24e adj. EBITA on a largely unchanged outlook, though we make minor tweaks to the segment top line and the opex lines. While we note the compelling pace of client signings, our top line estimates already account for this. Below EBITA, we raise financial costs on the back of the rise in STIBOR, which is weighing on net income.

Share up 31% YTD, outperforming most peers
The GiG share has shown strength in a weak market, being up 31% YTD while the OMXSGI is down 26% and the iGaming & Sports Betting ETF (BETZ) is down 45%. GiG is now trading at 11x-7x ‘22e-‘23e EV/EBITA on our current estimates. Looking at ‘22e-‘23e EV/EBITDA (to avoid different PPA amortisation calculations in cons. estimates) vs. our peer groups on Factset cons. estimates, G
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