Soft Q4e amid supply chain disruptions and tough comps

We cut ‘22e EBIT by 3% on lowered GM estimates

17x-12x EV/EBIT on ‘22e-‘23e, -0.5x NIBD/EBITDA ‘21e

Q4e: weak gross margins, but strong orders
Amid tough comps and continued supply chain disruptions, we expect Pricer to deliver Q4 sales of SEK 459m (-33% y-o-y), and EBIT of SEK 23m (-67% y-o-y). In Q4’20, Pricer benefitted from a large share of BestBuy deliveries (we estimate that BestBuy accounted for 50% of Q4’20 sales), driving 186% growth y-o-y, but it won’t have as large BestBuy deliveries in Q4’21e. Furthermore, the company’s gross margins have lately been hurt by inflated freight rates and component costs, and we expect these trends to continue in Q4. That said, although Pricer has not announced any orders in Q4, we estimate strong orders of SEK 418m. While this represents a drop of 8% y-o-y, it should be seen in light of the SEK 157m in orders announced in Q4’20, meaning that we forecast underlying growth of 41% y-o-y. This stems from us believing the current supply chain disruptions (i.e. longer lead times) are prompting customers to place orders for deliveries further ahead than they typically do.

2022e-2023e sales up 4% on raised order intake expectations
We leave our Q4 sales and order intake estimates largely intact but cut our EBIT to SEK 23m (previously SEK 27m) due to lower gross margin assumptions. For 2022-2023, we raise our sales estimates by 4% on the back of a strong order intake near term coupled with recent FX movements. However, we cut our corresponding EBIT estimates by 3-2% due to lower gross margins.

Freight rates have recently started to stabilise
Although the avg. freight rate rose 296% y-o-y in Q4, the sequential growth was 1%, suggesting signs of stabilising prices. We expect prices to eventually come down and the supply chain disruptions to be resolved; however, we do not expect this to occur in H1’22. That said, once the market conditions start to improve, Pricer could enter a phase of
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