A closer look at the project business

Valuing the long-term portfolio with 100-300 MW added p.a.

Value range of SEK 53-117/share, depending on pipeline

Announced new growth ambitions at end of March
Arise is an integrated wind power company in the Nordics with operations spanning the entire value chain – from exploration and permitting to financing, construction, divestment, and long-term management of its own and other investors' wind farms. The company’s general target is to generate shareholder returns in the form of dividends and capital growth through efficient funding, management operation, and project development in the area of renewable energy. While we previously have looked at Arise’s announced projects, this report aims to take a long-term perspective and value the company based on its future portfolio's level of success. We believe Arise’s recently announced growth plan of using a combination of geographical expansion in tandem with the introduction of solar power and co-investing, creates an opportunity for the company to i) diversify its portfolio, ii) create new business opportunities, and iii) generate long-term financial returns.

Fair value range of SEK 53-117, depending on future pipeline
We arrive at a fair value range of SEK 53-117 (35-60) per share, based on a SOTP approach where we estimate the NPV of Arise’s announced projects, own wind production, asset management operations, and factor in the probability of various long-term project scenarios (100-300 MW added per annum). This is cross-checked by ’26e FCF yield scenarios, which imply a valuation of SEK 50-93 per share, in line with ABGSCe.

Q1’21 expectations; estimates largely unchanged
We expect sales of SEK 39m (-22% y-o-y) and EBITDA to come in at SEK 20m, for a margin of c. 52% (51%). We still assume low revenue recognition of projects sold, with Development and Management sales of SEK 5m (SEK 13m), as only Skaftåsen (231 MW) is under construction. However, we expect Arise’s own production
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