• Solid Q1 with 33% ARR growth and 15% adj. EBITDA margin
• Raising '24e-'26e ARR by ~1%, EBITDA by 19-10%
• More guidance upgrades in sight; FVR of DKK 5-14 (5-13)

Solid Q1 with 33% ARR growth and 15% adj. EBITDA margin

While Q1 only revealed key figures for the quarter, as expected, the numbers were rock-solid. ARR grew 33% y-o-y and revenues 35%, both only marginally higher than we had expected (+1% and +2%, respectively). The key driver was higher-than-expected volumes, e.g. illustrated by GMV growth roughly replicating ARR growth, meaning that prices had a more limited impact. The higher top-line also drove the 19% adj. EBITDA beat, landing at DKK 10.8m, for a margin of 15% (up 10pp y-o-y). Q1 cash EBITDA of DKK 4.5m corresponded to a margin of 6%, thereby continuing the sequential improvement q-o-q.

Raising '24e-'26e EBITDA by 19-10%; more upgrades in sight

As an upgrade of the FY'24 top-line guidance was already baked into our estimates, we make only limited '24e-'26e ARR and revenue revisions. We now call for 16% ARR growth and 22% revenue growth in '24e, both above guidance of 10-13% and 11-15%, respectively. While we had also expected an upgrade of the profitability guidance for the year, we were taken by surprise by the magnitude of it. As a consequence, we raise '24e-'26e EBITDA by 19-10%, driven both by higher top-line estimates, slightly higher gross margin assumptions, and lower opex. Our estimates now imply a ~7pp y-o-y improvement in both the adj. EBITDA and cash EBITDA margins in '24e vs. '23. This places us 8-14% above the high-end of the FY'24 EBITDA and cash EBITDA guidance range, meaning that today's upgrade should not be the last we will see in '24.

New FVR of DKK 5-14 (5-13)

OrderYOYO is currently trading at 2.9-2.0x EV/Sales and 45-17x EV/EBITDA-capex in '24e-'26e. A valuation vs. US peer Olo yields DKK 5-9, and Nordic SaaS peers yield DKK 8-11. Our DCF now points to DKK 14 (13) on raised near-term estimates and slightly higher long-term margin assumption