Q3 sales missed our forecast by 13%, driven mainly by vacation effects but also the general raw-material shortage globally, which may have pushed some sales into Q4e. However, this has not changed our view of Nexam Chemical, and we still believe the 2022 sales target of SEK275m–325m is within reach with its current platforms. Following the Q3 results and a change of analyst, we have lowered our estimates slightly but reiterate our fair value of SEK15–20. We estimate a strong end to 2021 and consider the company wellpositioned to continue executing on its profitable growth journey. Additional breakthroughs in new platforms, such as recycling or polyethylene, could offer potential upside in the near to medium term, in our view.

Fair value of SEK15–20 reiterated. Our fair value is based on a 10% premium to peers’ 2023e EV/sales of 3.6x, and our DCF, and reflects the prospect of a re-rating on improved ESG credentials

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