Strong letting activity, SEK 53m new + renegotiated in H1

Net LTV fell 190bp q-o-q; NIBD/EBIT at 12.7x

‘22e P/CE of 25x, in line with Catena

Recurring PTP of SEK 70m, 8% above ABGSCe
Rental income was SEK 160m in Q2, in line with ABGSCe. NOI was SEK 124m (115m), 4% above our estimates. On the back of the NOI margin in recent quarters, we lower our forecasts for operational expenses as we believe Stendörren’s overlook of its portfolio in the last 1.5 years is paying off in terms of efficiency improvements. With central admin slightly below, and net financials slightly above, our estimates, recurring PTP was SEK 70m, representing 13% y-o-y growth and 8% above ABGSCe. SEK 24m in new + renegotiated leases in Q2 makes H1 (SEK 53m) the most active half year for this metric since we started to measure in 2018. The large SEK -17m default of the tenant Exploria – anticipated for a while, but realised in Q2 – led to negative net leasing of -4m.

Property value uplifts of SEK 370m, or 3.8%
Value uplifts was the primary factor pushing long-term NAVPS ~22% higher y-o-y in Q2 to SEK 159. Value uplifts (SEK 370m) were higher than any previous quarter with the exception for Q2’16, and represented 3.8% of the property value. The increased property value has also positively impacted net LTV, which fell 190 bp sequentially and 410 bp y-o-y to 47.4%. NIBD/EBIT fell to 12.7x (from 14.1x in Q1) and is now below the sector average of 12.8x.

‘22e P/NAV of 1.22x, 19% below Catena at 1.51x
With a 33% rise in the last three months, the share continued to outperform the Carnegie Real Estate Index (18%) in Q2. Among logistics peers, NP3 and Sagax have performed very similarly (34% respectively), while Catena falls short (17%). Stendörren’s ’22e P/CE of 25x is 13% above the sector average and 3% above Catena. ‘22e P/EPRA NAV of 1.22x exceeds the sector by 17% and is 19% below Catena.

research@abgsc.com (Introduce.se)

ABG Sundal Collier - Introduce.se