Pipeline within construction remains solid

Expect back-loaded 2021e following strong Q4,

We increase our order intake estimates by ~25%

Filling backlog up faster than expected
MT Hojgaard Holding posted an in-line Q4 result, with revenue of DKK 1,573m (2% vs. ABGSC/consensus), gross profit of DKK 141m (2% vs. ABGSC and -9% vs. cons.) and EBIT (b.s.i) of DKK 51m (-3% vs. ABGSC and 2% vs. cons), supported by Ajos and MTH PU. The firm thus ended 2020 with revenue of DKK 5.9bn and EBIT of DKK 124m, directly in line with the guidance set at the start of the year. Order intake for Q4 was DKK 2,938m (31% vs. ABGSC and 51% vs. consensus), supported by MTH DK, E&P and MTH Int., a strong showing compared to its run-rate of DKK 1.5bn in Q1-Q3’20. There were limited large orders in Q4, therefore the company experienced a continued strong intake of smaller orders in capital cities along with partnerships and renovation assignments, especially for E&P (Q4 intake up 20% y-o-y). The framework agreements for the DSB workshops (one tranche), Vandkulturhuset (two tranches) and CIVICA will be included in the order intake on an ongoing basis, where the timing is currently unclear.

Including PPA and back-loaded phasing in for 2021e
The firm guides for solid ‘21e revenue of DKK 6.8bn (50% from RTS/Raunstrup) It guides for EBIT of DKK 160m (margin of 2.4%), but this is for the entire MTHH Group (incl. parent company) excl. PPA; it previously excluded the parent company. We cut reported EBIT by DKK 47m, which now includes PPA of DKK 34m (DKK 37m ‘20), and lower EBIT by DKK 10m, as the back end-loaded order intake means the company (esp. MTH DK) will experience phasing to H2’21. We think the firm will deliver organic growth of 5% with an EBIT margin just shy of 2% in H1’21, and 10% growth and an EBIT margin over 3% in H2’21 alongside continued negative FY’21e EBIT in MTH DK of -1.5%.

Better backlog improves downside risk
We increase our order backlog by 10% and 40% for ’21-22e, and with better b
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