Sales +28% y-o-y (-2% vs. ABGe), EBIT +6% vs. ABGe

Strong operational leverage

Estimates could come down slightly amid the sales miss

Q3 results
Sales SEK 175m (-2.3% vs ABGSC 179m), EBITDA SEK 98m (6.2% vs ABGSC 93m), EBIT SEK 82m (5.7% vs ABGSC 78m), PTP SEK 81m (5.9% vs ABGSC 77m), EPS SEK 1.06 / share (6.3% vs ABGSC 1.00 / share).

Customer intake of +10,000 (ABGSCe 11,000)
Overall good numbers, with 28% y-o-y sales growth and 49% y-o-y EBIT growth. Q3 customer intake was 10,000 (ABGSCe 11,000). APRC of SEK 168/month was however lower than our forecast at SEK 172/month. That said, Fortnox reported stellar margins (47% EBIT margin vs. 40% in Q3’19), which gave an incremental EBIT margin of 71%. Fortnox Finance posted 22% y-o-y growth (vs. 40% in Q2’20) for an EBIT margin of 38%. Fortnox Core grew 29% y-o-y. Fortnox cites that transaction based sales have been hurt due to COVID-19, although that the negative effects started to subside by the end of the quarter.

Valuation and forecast changes
Based on the Q3 report alone, we believe that preliminary forecast changes could be slightly negative. Based on FactSet estimates, the share is currently trading at 55x f12m EV/EBIT, which is about 60% above its last 4-year average.

research@abgsc.com (Introduce.se)

ABG Sundal Collier - Introduce.se