Stendörren Fastigheter
Stendörren - Postive earnings trend to continue in 2020 (ABG Sundal Collier)
2020-07-20 17:16
Recurring PTP of SEK 62m +7% vs. ABGSCe SEK 58m
Q3 rent collection at normal levels
’21e P/CE of 16x vs. sector average of 15x
Second clean quarter without one-offs2019 was burdened by one-offs for real estate costs, central admin and net financials, but Q2, as we expected, was the second quarter in a row with no one-offs. Stendörren reported a solid Q2 with rental income growing by 8%, NOI by 17% and recurring PTP 88% y-o-y. NOI and rental income were in line with our estimates while recurring PTP was +7% vs. ABGSCe, mainly from lower central admin costs than expected. Stendörren is guiding for a small impact from COVID-19 with rent discounts of SEK 0.4m in Q2. Meanwhile, the Q3 rent discounts stand at SEK 0.5m and granted deferrals of SEK 0.3m, indicating a rent collection of ~99% for Q3. In summary, we make minor estimate revisions (hybrid interest now included in CEPS, which is why the change appears large), and we expect CEPS growth of 60% in ‘20 and 14% in ‘21.
EPRA NAV growth of 6% in ‘20e and 13% in ‘21e
In Q2, Stendörren reported EPRA NAV of SEK 130 (vs. ABGSCe at 131), up 9% y-o-y. Property value revisions were -0.3% (vs. ABGSCe at 0.0%), which was from changed cash flows, yield requirements and somewhat higher project costs. We remain cautious on value revisions for ’20e and expect 0.2% and 2.5% in ’21e, coupled with a CEPS contribution of ~5-6% p.a., which takes EPRA NAVPS to SEK 134 and SEK 152 in ’20e and ’21e, respectively. These estimates imply EPRA NAVPS growth of 6% and 13% in ’20e and ’21e, respectively. In addition, we see estimate potential from Stendörren’s building rights portfolio, which is valued at SEK 1,261m.
‘21e P/EPRA NAVPS of 82% vs. sector at 84%
Stendörren’s stock is down 26% YTD and lagging the sector at -22%. Moreover, names with logistics/warehouses exposure have performed better (Sagax -4% and Catena -17%). The ‘21e P/CE of 16x implies a 6% premium to the sector average of 15x. Moreover, the ‘21e P/EPRA NAV
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