EMA filing for Strangvac just around the corner

Q4’19 held no drama

We look at historical and future de-risking milestones

Sticking to the time plan – we expect filing in late Feb. ’20e
Intervacc is swiftly approaching the time for submission of the dossier for Strangvac to the EMA. In November 2019, Intervacc communicated its intention to file for approval to the EMA during Q1’20, targeting the end of February. According to management, it is confident in maintaining this timeline and the high quality of the application. The approval process is expected to take roughly 12 months, implying potential approval in the beginning of 2021. We assume a 90% likelihood of approval given the strong clinical data and lower regulatory thresholds in animal health.

Q4’19 financial summary and estimate revisions
Intervacc reported modest quarterly sales of SEK 1.1m, in line with the previously communicated restructuring of the distributor product portfolio (Nordvacc) where old products are cycled out. With a quarterly cash burn of SEK -10.6m, cash and equivalents came in at SEK 52.5m at the end of 2019. Given the ramp-up of commercialization efforts, we are encouraged by the cost control, and Intervacc should be funded into 2021 when we expect to see revenue streams from Strangvac sales. The significant estimate revisions for ’20e-’21e reflect lower expected sales from Nordvacc (SEK 10m vs. previously estimated SEK 23m for ’20e), to be more aligned with sales reported in recent quarters. We note that these revisions should not be associated with Strangvac.

Solid execution as we approach more de-risking milestones
In this report, we look at key historical and future de-risking milestones and conclude that Intervacc seem to be well positioned for eventful years ahead in a rapidly growing market. Besides the upcoming EMA filing, we also expect an update on its efforts to establish a commercialisation agreement with a global partner within the coming months. We expect that a potential partner
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ABG Sundal Collier - Introduce.se