Briox
Briox - Strong sequential uptick in ARPU (ABG Sundal Collier)
2019-08-20 20:24
Sales: 36% y-o-y growth, 16% above ABGSCe
Raised sales estimates on higher ARPU assumptions
58% ’18-’21e sales CAGR, 21x EV/sales on ’21e
Q2 details: sales SEK 1.1m, EBIT SEK -4.7mDespite facing tough comps Briox delivered a strong Q2, with sales of SEK 1.11m (+16% vs. ABGSCe SEK 0.96m), up 36% y-o-y. The number of licenses aligned with our expectations, meaning that the deviation to our forecast was due to the ARPU, which came in at SEK 101. This represents a sequential ARPU increase of SEK 13, with the improvement being a function of a maturing customer base (i.e. more modules per customer). Briox also raised SEK 36m during Q2, via a rights issue. Although the company is not explicit about the amount, this has entailed some non-recurring costs. As such, opex amounted to SEK -5.8m, +8% vs. ABGSCe.
’19e-’21e sales upgraded by 15-19%
Briox’s main strategy is to sign agreements with accounting bureaus, which acts a sales channel, because they can in turn offer Briox’s solutions to their own customers. YTD, the company has signed 44 new agreements, which we believe bodes well for increased sales of licenses. We estimate that there will be 4,150 active licenses by the end of 2019. Following the Q2 report, we have raised our ARPU assumptions, increasing our ’19 sales estimate by 15%. Although the company has a scalable business model, we believe it will continue to increase its fixed costs (mainly related to personnel costs), and we therefore cut our ’19 EBIT estimate by 8%.
51x-21x ’19e-’21e EV/S, although negative earnings
Briox’s efforts to grow its sales are clear, and we believe that the recent share issue will spur its advancement in the coming quarters. Furthermore, given the company’s strong momentum in both Finland and Estonia, we think that the planned expansion into Latvia and Lithuania (Jan 2020) makes sense. Although we acknowledge the risks in conjunction with expanding into new markets, we believe that successful launches could entail upsides to our current fo
...
- Läs mer på Introduce
Läsaren av innehållet kan anta att ABG Sundal Collier har erhållit eller kommer att erhålla betalning för utförandet av finansiella företagstjänster från bolaget. Ersättningen är på förhand avtalad och är inte beroende av innehållet.
info@introduce.se (Introduce.se)
ABG Sundal Collier - Introduce.se