ABGSC predicts 80k copies sold on Steam in Q4

We have lowered our sales estimate by SEK 70m

Assumed gross margin of 70%, EBIT cut by SEK 49m

Steamspy shows 50-100k game sales
Two weeks after its launch it seems likely that Darksiders 3 has sold between 50k and 100k copies on Steam. There are also reports of a more precise number of 71k copies, according to google searches. We argue that these numbers should not be treated as fact but think it gives a fair indication. We also argue that Darksiders 3 has a short life span and that the majority of sales have already occurred. It will of course sell some additional copies during the Steam Winter Sale, which starts 20 December, but we do not expect any major contribution from that. We predict that 80k copies will be sold on Steam in Q4.

Darksiders series is stronger on console
Looking back to 2012, Darksiders 2 sold roughly 1.6m copies on PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 plus 150k copies on PC, according to vgchartz.com. That is roughly 8.5% of total sales on PC. Since then, the PC gaming market has grown by 27% and console by 9%, according to Newzoo. We assume the same proportion between PC and console for Darksiders 3, but take into consideration that the PC market has outgrown console. This gives a PC share of 10% for the game, indicating 800k total copies sold. To meet our previous estimate, sales of 1m copies would be needed. Based on that, we have lowered our sales estimate by SEK 70m and our EBIT estimate by 49m for Q4.

Mixed reviews and indication of disappointing retail sales
Darksiders 3 has received mixed and very diverse reviews. We think this is due to it being an old game series, in a genre that has decreased in popularity over the last few years. Hence, newcomers are generally critical of the game whereas fans of the series still see it as a good game. Another thing worth noting are reports of disappointing retail sales in the UK, where the game debuted in 32nd place on the weekly charts.

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ABG Sundal Collier - Introduce.se