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Urb-it - Q4 playing a key role in the full-year outcome (ABG Sundal Collier)

2022-01-21 17:56
Q4 report due on February 22
We expect sales of SEK 14m and EBIT of SEK -28m
Share trading at EV/Sales of 6.7-3.1x in ‘22e-‘23e
Lowering our sales and EBIT estimates due to disruptions…
Urb-it releases its Q4 report on 22 February. In Q3, sales grew 255% y-o-y and 26% q-o-q while EBIT continued to decline (-79% y-o-y, -34% q-o-q) on the back of a rising opex base due to the volume hike. Although we still see Q4 constituting the lion’s share of FY’21e sales (45%) due to volumes from partnership signings becoming visible, we expect Urb-it to have experienced lockdown-related disruptions in its home markets of the UK and France. Overall, we think this might have hampered the availability of couriers. As such, we lower our sales estimates by 10%, while lowering EBIT by 0.9% on our assumption of a somewhat higher cost base due to recruiting key roles such as country manager for Spain, CMO and the marketing team. In absolute terms, we expect Q4 sales of SEK 14m (+238% y-o-y, +94% q-o-q) with EBIT dropping to SEK -28m (-107% y-o-y, -17% q-o-q).

… but expansion to Spain adds confidence into 2022
Following the share issuances totalling SEK 175m in Q4’21, Urb-it announced its expansion to Spain (Barcelona and Madrid) earlier in January. This is in line with our initial view that Urb-it needs to expand both geographically and through new partnership signings to ramp up its volumes, which represent the key revenue driver. Consequently, we take a positive view on the expansion and argue that it adds confidence in the company’s ability to execute on its growth strategy, which should provide support for continued growth into 2022. All in all, we make minor estimate revisions for ‘22e-‘23e, lowering sales and EBIT by 0.5-0.2% and 2%, respectively. We still expect Urb-it to break even on EBIT in H2’23e if it delivers in line with our estimates, where we assume a declining cost base as it gains more pricing power toward its partners.

Value range unchanged at SEK 3-14 per share
On our updat

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