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Eolus Vind
Eolus Vind - Big estimate swings due to Öyfjellet delay (ABG Sundal Collier)

2022-01-20 17:52
Q4’21 report due on 18 February
Estimates adjusted for Öyfjellet and Cald
We adjust our fair value range to SEK 180-230 (180-240)
Q4’21 expectations
We forecast sales of SEK 688m, roughly unchanged compared to Q3. The sales are held back by the delay in Öyfjellet and we only expect an additional 10% revenue recognition, leaving the remaining 47% for Q1’22e. The Cald project sale will be supportive, and given it is still in the development stage, we have assumed a good margin contribution. We expect group EBIT of SEK 52m, for a margin of 7.6%. In addition, we forecast a net profit of SEK 40m.

Öyfjellet delay means earnings moved from ’21e to ‘22e
The 400 MW Öyfjellet project completion was delayed from Q4’21 to Q1’22. The weather conditions proved too challenging, while COVID-19-related restrictions also played a role. The company also stated that the delay will have a negative effect on the margin for this project. On the positive side, Eolus announced on 1 January ’22 that it had sold the Cald battery-storage project (US) on 31 December ‘21. The project is still at an early stage and completion is planned for ’24. The buyer, Aypa, will be responsible for construction. Energy storage is a new product for Eolus and could clearly become a larger revenue contributor in the future. All in all, we have lowered ‘21e EBIT by 83% and raised ‘22e EBIT by 85%. In absolute terms, we have raised our ’21-‘23e EBIT by a total of SEK 48m, due to the sale of Cald more than offsetting the lower project margin expected for Öyfjellet.

Fair value range of SEK 180-230 (180-240)
We adjust the high end of our fair value range slightly, with the range now at SEK 180-230 compared to SEK 180-240 previously. The high end implies a '22‘e EV/EBIT of ~9x. The stock is down ~30% over the last three months, mostly as a consequence of the delay of the Öyfjellet project. We think the risk premium will remain high until the project is delivered to the customer, which is expected
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research@abgsc.com (Introduce.se)
ABG Sundal Collier - Introduce.se

Eolus Vind B - I dag

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