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Midsona - Now is the time to shine (Introduce)

2021-10-17 21:00
Q3 report due on 22 October
We expect sales of SEK 994m and adj. EBIT of SEK 61m
Slightly neg. estimate revisions on soaring raw materials
Q3: we expect sales of SEK 994m and EBIT of SEK 61m
Midsona will publish its Q3 results on Friday, 22 October. In this report, we bear in mind that the company will experience significantly easier comparisons in H2’21. In Q3, the company will meet the de-stocking comps of Q3’20. All in all, we expect Q3 organic growth of 2% y-o-y for sales of SEK 994m and adj. EBIT of SEK 61m, corresponding to an adj. EBIT margin of 6%. Our estimate changes in this report sum up to low-single digits on adj. EBIT ‘22e-‘23e and low double digits on EPS. The main changes we have made are: 1) incorporating Vitality, 2) incorporating the capital raise executed this summer and 3) taking a cautious stance for potential negative effects within the supply chain.

Supply chain/raw materials: mainly a potential Q4 issue
While Midsona is unlikely to remain completely unscathed from the current macro uncertainties regarding raw materials, freight rates and general supply, we believe the company will do better than many others. This is due to: 1) the company having a large share of own production further back in the supply chain and 2) it has a price negotiation window in September. Midsona’s communication around the Q2 report was that the company has not yet seen any significant raw material increases. This means that there could have been a 1-2 month lag from temporarily higher input prices before an adjustment could have been made. However, having exited Q2 with a large inventory position (larger than our raw material COGS in Q3), we believe Midsona is in a strong position to weather the storm, although we take a cautious stance for this short-term, as we acknowledge that the company is unlikely to have been completely unaffected.

A better ride in H2
After a rough H1 for Midsona, we foresee a H2 with more tailwinds with easier comps and a reopening market aiding the

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Midsona A - I dag



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