Stockwik Förvaltning
Stockwik - Q3 should be back to normal (ABG Sundal Collier)
2021-10-14 17:38
Q3 report due on Friday, 12 November
’20-‘23e EBITA CAGR of 55%...
…at 12x ‘22e EV/EBITA
Q3 expectationsWe estimate sales of SEK 160m, up 60% y-o-y (14% organic, 46% M&A). The rise is driven by the seven acquisitions not fully included in the comparable period, as well as easy comps. We forecast EBITA of SEK 14.6m, corresponding to a margin of 9.1% (3.0%), up 6.1p.p. We expect the margin expansion to come from: 1) margin-accretive acquisitions and 2) a diminishing negative impact from the pandemic.
Estimate changes and outlook
We leave our estimates intact. Looking ahead, we expect ’20-‘23e sales and EBITA CAGRs of 18% and 55%, respectively. However, our estimates do not include any further acquisitions. In conjunction with the Q2’21 report, CEO communicated that Stockwik had SEK 150m available for further expansion. This could add SEK 25m (56%) to our ‘21e EBITA estimates, given acquisition multiplies of 6x EV/EBITA.
Trading below peers at 12x ‘22e EV/EBITA
The share is down 16% over the last 30 days (vs. Carnegie Small Cap Sweden at -5%) and is trading at 12x ‘22e EV/EBITA, 14% below small serial-acquirers and 56% below larger compounders. We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 135-263 per share, corresponding to 15x-27x ‘22e EV/EBITA.
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