AlzeCure has reported positive Phase Ib data for its topical treatment for neuropathic pain, ACD440, slightly earlier than expected (mid-2021). These data show that the drug was well tolerated and demonstrated an efficacy signal of its analgesic potential. Preparations for Phase II development are underway. Regulatory filling for a new study, expected by end-2021, should provide a better sense of the forms of neuropathic pain AlzeCure will pursue.

We currently assume a partnering deal will occur during Phase II development, but note that having these positive Phase Ib data might bring this forward. In our initiation report, we had forecast $500m peak sales at 10% probability for ACD440’s potential use in neuropathic pain, which contributed SEK3.6/share (c 19%) to our valuation.

We will review our assumptions when further details are released.

We maintain our valuation at SEK729m or SEK19.3/share and our forecasts are unchanged.

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