Rental income to grow 7% y-o-y (5% in Q1’20)

Among the lowest T12m NIBD/EBIT in the sector

Valued at 6% below NP3 and 47% below Sagax on NAV

Recurring Q1e PTP growth of 9%, to SEK 193m
We expect rental income of SEK 338m (315m) in Q1. The growth is mainly driven by income from projects and acquisitions. For acquisitions, all major objects for 2021 (known to date) have been entered in Q1. They include five logistics properties in DK and two in Borås, SE, with a total ~SEK 60m in rental income for ‘21. For projects, six larger ones were started in 2020, which will add y-o-y growth to Q1 and ~SEK 44m of rental income in ‘21. We forecast Q1 growth in NOI of 8% (12%) and recurring PTP growth of 9% (14%).

EPRA NAVPS of SEK 140, 25% y-o-y
We forecast a value uplift of 0.8% in Q1 (0.1%), which yields EPRA NAV growth of 25% y-o-y and 3.5% q-o-q. On our forecast of 9.3x, Catena has among the lowest T12m NIBD/EBITs in the sector, and it has a net LTV of 50%, which is in line with the sector. Catena’s cash yield (EPRA NAVPS/CEPS) is also among the best in the sector. We estimate a N12m cash yield of 8.3%, which is 38% higher than its logistics peer Stendörren (STEF) on our estimates.

Above sector but below core peers on P/EPRA NAV
Catena’s share is up 89% since its trough in March and 11% YTD. The ‘21e P/CE of 21.2x is in line with our sector average and slightly above STEF. On P/EPRA NAV last reported, the share is 59% above the sector and 44% above STEF, but 6% below NP3 and 47% below Sagax. Catena reports on 29 April at 3:00 PM.

research@abgsc.com (Introduce.se)

ABG Sundal Collier - Introduce.se