Stendörren Fastigheter
Stendörren - Ready, set, invest (ABG Sundal Collier)

2020-02-21 15:22
Erik Ranje replaces Mikael Nicander as CEO
EPRA NAVPS to increase by 13% p.a. ’20e-‘21e
’20 P/CE of 24.7x implies a 2% premium to sector
Incoming CEO could push new investments
In February, Stendörren announced that Erik Ranje would replace Mikael Nicander as CEO with immediate effect. Ranje was appointed as Deputy CEO and CIO at Stendörren in November 2019. Ranje has over 22 years’ experience in investment banking as Head of Real Estate Investment Banking at Danske Bank and in various corporate finance positions at SEB. Shortly after EQT embarked as main owner at the end of 2018, a new CEO, a deputy CEO and several board members were appointed. We speculate that the change of CEO was prompted by main owner EQT growing disappointed with Stendörren’s low pace of investment in 2019, and Coop (the largest tenant with ~9% of rental income) is considering moving from Stendörren’s warehouse in Upplands Bro to develop its own facility under contract with Catena in Eskilstuna.

CEPS and EPRA NAVPS CAGR of 26% and 13% in ’19-‘21e
2019 and Q4’19 were burdened by one-offs in real estate costs, central admin and net financials. These costs mainly related to extraordinary renovations, organisation shifts and financing changes. However, we expect that 2020 will be exempted from one-offs. We forecast CEPS rising by 43% in ’20e and 11% in ’21e (the strong ‘20e growth relates to a low ’19 CEPS level due to one-offs). We forecast value gains of ~2.5% in ’20e-21e, coupled with a CEPS contribution of ~6% p.a., which takes EPRA NAVPS to SEK 143 and SEK 161 in ’20e and ’21e. These estimates imply EPRA NAVPS growth of 13% p.a. in ’20e-’21e. In addition, we see a large estimate potential from Stendörren’s largest logistics project, GreenHub Bro.

2020e P/EPRA NAVPS of 138 implies 3% discount to sector
Stendörren’s ~75% LYTD return is roughly in line with the sector at 80% (Carnegie Real Estate Index). The 2020e P/CE of ~24.7x corresponds to a 2% premium to the Swedish
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Stendörren Fastigheter B - I dag

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