North Media
North Media - 2020 to shine light on enhanced sale channels (Introduce)

2020-01-16 07:00
We expect a strong Christmas/New Year performance
ABGSC ’20e: 2% sales decline, but +0.3pp EBIT margin
FY’19/Q4 report on 6 February
Strong ending to 2019, yielding a high dividend
Statistics Denmark has Danish retail sector sales at +0.7% for Q4 2019. We forecast a conservative 0.4% y-o-y group revenue growth, to DKK 309m, driven by strong 6% y-o-y sales growth in FK Distribution, 6% y-o-y growth in NM Online and doubling sales in Bekey. We forecast a continued 11% y-o-y decline in sales for NM newspapers. As a result, we are in line with the company’s FY guidance DKK 1,110-1,140m (ABGSCe: DKK 1,124m). On EBIT, we estimate a strong FY figure of DKK 151m, for a 13.7% margin (guidance: DKK 145-160m) following the company’s three upgrades this year. EBIT is mostly driven by a strong 23.2% EBIT margin (3.4pp y-o-y improvement) in FK Distribution driven by high efficiency and a more favourable pricing structure. We expect ~36% of EBIT to be generated in Q4, when we see high retail demand for commercial leaflets during Christmas/New Year, which we believe could result in a dividend of DKK 4.5/share (~9.5% yield).

2020e: sales -2% y-o-y with +0.3pp EBIT margin
For 2020, we reiterate our sales estimate of DKK 1,089m (-2% y-o-y decline) with strong comps from 2019e with effective price increases; we believe volumes will continue to fall but that this will be partly offset by more price increases. For the subsidiaries, we estimate y-o-y sales growth of -1%, -13%, 6% and 2% for FK distribution, NM Newspapers, NM Online and Bekey respectively. For the group, we estimate gross and EBIT margins of 51% (+0.7pp) and 13.7% (+0.3pp y-o-y), respectively. We have a conservative 5% return on its securities next year (2019: ~59%). We think NM will announce plans to improve profitability in the three smaller segments and focus areas to attract new revenue. We believe that the company may release long-term objectives for its businesses.

Price range of DKK 33-52
The stock has performed wel
...

  • Läs mer på Introduce

  • Läsaren av innehållet kan anta att ABG Sundal Collier har erhållit eller kommer att erhålla betalning för utförandet av finansiella företagstjänster från bolaget. Ersättningen är på förhand avtalad och är inte beroende av innehållet.

info@introduce.se (Introduce.se)
ABG Sundal Collier - Introduce.se

North Media - I dag

{point.key}

Marknadsöversikt

Stockholmsbörsen, OMXS30

I dag
-
Senast
-
{point.key}

Världsindex

Index +/- % Senast
DAX - -
Hang Seng - -
Nikkei - -

Valutor

Valuta +/- % Senast
USD/SEK - -
EUR/SEK - -
GBP/SEK - -
EUR/USD - -

Räntor

Ränta +/- % Senast
3-mån stibor - -
5-års ränta - -
10-års ränta - -

Råvaror

Råvara +/- % Senast
- -
Guld - -
Silver - -
Koppar - -