Avensia
Avensia - Keeping the fire stoked (ABG Sundal Collier)

2019-05-17 10:10
Strong start to 2019, albeit slightly below ABGSCe
Lowered estimates due to short-term investments
Share currently trading at 11.0x ‘20e EV/EBIT
Q1: sales and EBIT +42% y-o-y
Avensia reported stellar numbers in Q1. Sales rose 42% y-o-y, to SEK 82.7m, coupled with EBIT of SEK 12.2m. Our forecasts were SEK 84.1m and SEK 13.4m respectively. The primary driver behind this was continued high demand for Avensia’s services in combination with 2018’s strong net recruitment, as Avensia now has a headcount of 191 (up from 154 in Q1’18). Even so, the rate has recently slowed, as a mere 3 people were recruited in the quarter. According to the company, this is mainly a result of an enhanced focus on adding more senior people (which is a scare resource) in conjunction with the company’s aim of becoming a strategic business partner to its customers to an even greater extent. The information around Storefront remains sparse, but we believe that a recently won award from EPIserver as the “EMEA Partner of the Year” implies a robust competitive offering.

We assess that investments will hurt upcoming quarters
Although the start of 2019 was good, Avensia has recently seen some lower activity from customers. It has also put in motion a number of initiatives aimed at strengthening its offering, mainly relating to investments in products and competence. Management gave guidance of an impact from this on its financials in the coming quarters. In light of this and the lower net recruitment rate, we have reduced ‘19e sales and EBIT by 4% and 10%, respectively.

We project that margins will expand in due time
In the longer term, we still expect margin expansion from 1) the normalisation of its ‘underlying’ margins, which the quarters with low net recruitment suggest is close to 15%; and 2) a higher share of revenues from software sales. On our revised estimates, we project an EBIT of SEK 55m in ‘20e, correspondent to a 14.1% margin. The share is trading at 17x ‘19e EV/EBIT, shrinking to 11x for ‘20
...

  • Läs mer på Introduce

  • Läsaren av innehållet kan anta att ABG Sundal Collier har erhållit eller kommer att erhålla betalning för utförandet av finansiella företagstjänster från bolaget. Ersättningen är på förhand avtalad och är inte beroende av innehållet.

info@introduce.se (Introduce.se)
ABG Sundal Collier - Introduce.se

Avensia - I dag

{point.key}

Marknadsöversikt

Stockholmsbörsen, OMXS30

I dag
-
Senast
-
{point.key}

Världsindex

Index +/- % Senast
DAX - -
Hang Seng - -
Nikkei - -

Valutor

Valuta +/- % Senast
USD/SEK - -
EUR/SEK - -
GBP/SEK - -
EUR/USD - -

Räntor

Ränta +/- % Senast
5-års ränta - -
10-års ränta - -

Råvaror

Råvara +/- % Senast
Guld - -
Silver - -
Koppar - -